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Donut Business Plan Financial Projections: 5 Numbers
A five number projection for a donut business, with a worked dozen showing margin after ingredients, labor, and overhead.
On this page
What to remember
- Cost one dozen, not one batch, so you can compare to the price you charge.
- Pay yourself an hourly rate in the sheet, even if you leave the money in the business.
- Spread monthly overhead across the dozen you actually sell.
- Check margin after ingredients, labor, and overhead, not after ingredients alone.
You do not need a 20 page document to make donut business plan financial projections useful. One page with five rows is enough to see whether a dozen donuts pays you or just keeps you busy. The rest of this guide fills those rows with numbers you can defend.
What five numbers belong in the projection?
Start with the cost of one dozen. Then add the time it takes to make that dozen, the monthly costs that keep your shop running, and the price a buyer will pay. The fifth number is the margin that is left after the first three costs come out.
Cost one dozen ingredients
List what you buy for a single batch and divide by the number of donuts it makes. Include filling, glaze, and packaging.
Add your labor at an hourly rate
Time every step once. Multiply hours by the rate you would pay someone else, even if you are the one baking.
List monthly overhead
Add rent for a licensed kitchen, insurance, phone, delivery miles, and Brevl at one flat $20 a month with no cut of your sales.
Pick a price and test it
Set a price per dozen and compare it to what local buyers already pay. Do not price below your cost plus labor.
Check margin after all three
Subtract ingredients, labor, and overhead from sales. If the number is thin, change the recipe size, the price, or the mix.
The order matters. Cost the dozen first, then add labor, then spread overhead. If you start with a price and work backward, you can talk yourself into a number that does not cover the work. Build the cost first and let the price follow.
A worked example for one dozen donuts
Here is a sample set of numbers to copy, not a supplier quote. Ingredients and packaging are $4.50 a dozen. Labor is 20 minutes at $15 an hour, or $5.00 a dozen. Brevl is $20 a month, and at 40 dozen a month that is $0.50 a dozen. Your cost is $10.00 a dozen. At $18.00 a dozen, your margin is $8.00 a dozen, or about 44 percent, after ingredients, labor, and overhead.
Change one number at a time. If you sell 30 dozen instead of 40, the Brevl cost becomes $0.67 a dozen and your margin drops to $7.83. If you pay yourself $20 an hour, labor becomes $6.67 a dozen and the margin drops again. The sheet shows you which change hurts most.
Where the projection usually goes wrong
A projection can fail for three simple reasons. You leave out a cost, use a sales number that never happens, or hide labor in your free time. Check these three places before you trust your margin.
Check your sales number against a real week. If you have not sold donuts yet, use the number of dozen you can bake alone and still deliver on time. A projection that needs three helpers before your first order is not a plan. It is a hope with a spreadsheet.
What to check before you commit to a price
Before you print a menu, check the number of dozen you can make in one week without help. Then check the price local buyers already pay for a similar donut. If your cost plus labor is above that price, change the size, the recipe, or the channel before you cut your own pay.
Run the projection for two channels if you sell at a market and take orders from home. Market sales carry booth fees and travel. Home orders carry packaging and delivery time. One sheet per channel shows you which one pays.
Ask what a licensed kitchen costs in your state before you build it into overhead. If you bake at home, check what your state allows you to sell and where before you build a channel into the plan. Those rules change your cost and your channel, so put them in the sheet before you price. If you plan to move into a shop, read Donut Shop Business Plan before you sign a lease.
How Brevl helps you keep the numbers current
Your costs change when flour, eggs, or packaging prices move. Brevl keeps recipes with real costing, ingredient inventory, and a weekly planner, so you can update one number and see the new margin. It works on a computer and on a phone. You can take orders and get paid through your own Stripe or Square account, plus Venmo, Cash App, Zelle, and cash.
You can update the cost of a recipe when a supplier raises a price. The weekly planner shows what you need to bake and what you need to buy. That keeps the projection tied to the work you actually do, not a number you set once and forgot.
Try the free bake pricing calculator
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Your next step
Fill in the five rows with your own numbers before you write a longer plan. The Donut Business Plan Template gives you the rows to copy. If you want to see a full example first, use the Donut Business Plan Example. Then check your first costs with the Donut Business Plan Outline.
Keep the sheet to one page. Review it at the end of each month with your real sales and your real receipts. A projection is a decision tool, not a document you file and never open again.
Review the sheet with your real receipts at the end of the month. If a line is off, change it before you set next month’s price. The goal is a number you can trust, not a perfect document.
Common questions
How many months of projections do I need?
Start with one month at the number of dozen you can actually bake. Add a second month only after you know your weekly orders. If you apply for a loan, ask what the lender wants. A home shop can plan from one honest month and adjust as sales grow.
Should I include my own pay in the projection?
Yes. Put your hours in at a real hourly rate, even if you do not draw the money yet. If the price only works when your labor is free, the business is not paying you. Raise the price or cut the batch size.
What if I sell at a market and take orders from home?
Split the projection by channel. Market sales carry booth fees and travel. Home orders carry packaging and delivery time. Use one sheet per channel, then add them together so you can see which one actually pays. Do not mix them until you know the cost of each.
How do I account for donuts I do not sell?
Add a waste line to ingredients. If you bake 40 dozen and sell 36, the cost of those 4 dozen belongs in the projection. Track it for a month, then raise your price or bake fewer. A waste line keeps the margin honest.
Do I need a formal business plan for a loan?
A one page projection is enough to run your shop. If you apply for a loan or a licensed kitchen, ask what they require and build to that list. Do not write 20 pages before you know your costs. Start with the five numbers here.
General information, not financial, legal, or tax advice. Check your own numbers and talk to a tax professional about your situation.